Taking stock of Nigeria at the national age of 47

by Martins Azuwike

Nigeria turned 47 years old as an independent nation on October 1, 2007. While most of the over 800 participants at the 13th annual Nigerian Economic Summit (NES #13) were engrossed with how to craft and implement far-reaching strategies to feature Nigeria among the 20 topmost economies in the world by 2020, David Mark, in very remarkable ways, tiptoed into what few gave a thought to.

At the event, held September 5-7 in Abuja, with the theme Nigeria: Positioning for the top 20 League, the Senate President, who was the Special Guest of Honour, brought a little twist to the discourse that dominated the three-day event when he spoke at the closing dinner.

"Others worry about vision 2020. I worry about what to tell Nigerians after 50 years of independence, and that is 3 years from now," Mark said. "This is not to say it is wrong to worry about 2020, but let us worry more about first things."

That was springing from a genuine concern about where the country is now in contrast with where it ought to be, and perhaps suggesting what needs to be done to approximate the ideal heights.

At independence on October 1, 1960, much was expected from the country. Not a few had expected the country to hit the ground running, given its lush endowments and overwhelming potentials. Many now hold the view that if what is being witnessed by the country today was the best it could afford in a world where so many other nations aim for the stars and no longer see the sky as their limit, the heroes of its independence would probably not have fought for self rule at the time they did. The very few of these heroes who are still alive today will tell you in very strong terms how disappointed they are at the country’s crass failure to arise and shine, despite lush opportunities and stupendous resource endowments.

Would you blame them when the feel-good spirit appears to have given way to shattered dreams? There are cases of near-misses and lost opportunities with grave consequences and outcomes that seem to have tethered the country to a seemingly inescapable fate of underdevelopment, and an intractable circle where 70 percent of the 140 million population remain poor in the midst of plenty.

Compared with Malaysia, Indonesia and other members of the Association of South-East Asia Nations (ASEAN) that were almost at par with the country’s development level at independence, Nigeria now looks incredibly dwarfed and almost drowned in the global economic backwater of underdevelopment in various spheres of endeavour.

While each of these nations now has what could be called its identity products or services, Nigeria has none, except perhaps crude oil. Nigeria dawdles with primary products and a mono-cultural economy beset with stifling import dependency, despite its regime of import bans that are poorly managed as a result of policy flip-flops.

Malaysia is believed to have obtained some species and samples of Nigeria’s palm fruits some decades ago to see if these would grow in the country. Today, Nigeria has slid from being a major producer of palm oil and palm produce to a net importer, while Malaysia, with its Malaysia Boleh ("Malaysia can-do)" spirit, has leveraged the power of research and technology to optimally harness the value of this, to not only emerge the world’s largest exporter of palm oil, but to also achieve the feat of refining palm oil as an alternative fuel that can be used in automobile engines.

Some of the ASEAN members are also referred to as "Asian Tigers" for their stunning attainments on the economic front. Just read the book: From Third World to First and you would be told The Singapore Story: 1965-2000.

In lucid terms, Lee Kuan Yew, a Cambridge University groomed lawyer who emerged the country’s first prime minister in 1959 at the age of 35, tells the story of Singapore, a country literally rejected, exorcised, written off and constrained "to leave Malaysia and go our own way with no signposts to our next destination." At 42, he took charge of an independent Singapore in 1965, with responsibility for the lives of its 2 million people. And from 1959 when the country’s GDP was only $400 the figure has grown astronomically to $22, 000 by 1999, despite immense political and economic challenges that characterised the entire global system at that time.

Today, this same Singapore is home to the world’s number one airline, best airport, busiest port of trade, and has posted the world’s fourth-highest per capita real income. Though it was virtually without its own pool of human capital, government, security apparatus, or governance structure, it has not failed to turn this oddity into opportunity.

But Nigeria still seeks ardently to increase its per capita income (GDP as a ratio of population) to about $1, 500 after 47 solid years of independence. With its abundant human and natural resources, its profile as the largest black nation, the 7th largest oil producer (OPEC’s number 6), 6th largest deposit of gas, 34 solid minerals, 44 exportable commodities, huge arable land about 60 percent of which is not yet utilised, analysts are agreed that Nigeria had been stagnated in its first 40 years as a nation.

What’s responsible for this striking difference? While some analysts ascribe it to leadership and skill gap, others are quick to conclude, reclining on analysis paralysis, that poor governance culture, low level of commitment, corruption and greed should be blamed.

This may be part of the problem, but whatever the cause, is the situation immutable?

Before 1999, Nigeria’s history as an independent nation was dominated by almost three decades of military rule that is widely acclaimed to have thrown its developmental and growth strides into a contemptuous slide.

... the outcome of reforms has driven average GDP growth since 2003 to 7 percent, with non-oil sector growth led by agriculture remaining above 8 percent since 2004. External reserves have also grown from $4-billion in 1999 to almost $46-billion after paying about $14-billion to Paris and London Clubs and wiping out about $33-billion of debt. Foreign investment which was negative in 19199 also reached $3-billion in 2006 with single digit inflation attained that year.

...Nigeria now has 25 strong and reliable banks to rank as the soundest the sector has ever seen. These 25 banks now equal the size of the first and second largest banks in South Africa combined (89 Nigerian banks in 2003 were only the size of South Africa’s 4th largest bank). It is also cheery that 20 out of 25 Nigerian banks now rank among Africa’s top 100, 17 in the top 40 and 4 in the top 10. While there were none in 2003, about 20 out of Nigeria’s 25 banks were also among the global top 1000 in 2006, and the Nigerian banking industry coasting home with recognition worldwide as the fastest growing in Africa.

It is also good news that Nigeria’s sovereign rating profile is improving, with market capitalisation projected to hit $100-billion by the end of 2007 from $35-billion in 2006. Capital inflows are also more than doubling every two years, reaching $4-billion in 2006.

Good news indeed, but Nigerian banks still remain penny stocks in dollar terms, despite the dominance of the sector as the key driver of the astounding growth of the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE).

Surprisingly, the public sector seems to be the cheerleader in this new wave that derives from various studies and projections by Goldman Sachs which intimates that Nigeria has the potential to be the 12 largest economy by 2050 ahead of Italy, Canada, Korea, and others nations that have already made substantial progress while the country was busy crawling instead of walking.

... the country should harness its huge untapped agricultural capacity...

Nigeria is yet to sufficiently leverage the immense financial and intellectual capacity of its 17 million people in the Diaspora, with over $4-billion in annual remittances and other possibilities for sustainable growth.

With revenue gushing from oil prices that have hit an all-time high of $81 per barrel and projections of $100 by year-end against the budget reference figure of $35, government targets a comprehensive cap on gas flaring by 2008. Revenue from harnessed gas should match revenue from crude oil by 2010, though analysts are sceptical about whether this will be achieved.

...oil is widely acknowledged as a wasting asset...Perhaps, this explains why avid economy watchers hold the view that even excess crude revenue being salted away in savings may not endure into the sustainable future in view of the winds of predictable market swirls and shocks blowing over the horizon.

However the pendulum swings, analysts are strong in their belief that the country’s human capital base remains its most reliable asset.

All over the world, Nigerians are seen, making impact, adding value to various spheres of human endeavour and sharpening intellectual capital and skills to the benefit of other nations in the global economic system. Today, this trend has constrained some analysts to take the position that the only place Nigerians cannot succeed is perhaps, in Nigeria. In 2004, for instance, Nigerians in the United Kingdom were reported to be worth 91-billion pounds, invested mainly in property.

...analysts believe that the most auspicious time for a turning point has come, when Nigeria should deliberately formulate inclusive policies to turn brain drain to brain gain and involve the Nigerian DNA (defined by people of Nigerian origin anywhere in the world) in its development and growth efforts.

The future is bright and let the nation focus on the 2020 vision with the hunter’s concentration level. It is possible, unless we choose to stop ourselves.

Arise o compatriots, Nigeria’s call obey. Be Nigerians beyond singing the National Anthem and reciting the National Pledge.

Business Day-Nigeria